VREB Stats Review for June 2008
Here is a rundown on the most recent stats release by VREB.
Have a look at this graphic, I put together two lovely screen captures from the VREB site. I couldn't believe it when I saw it, but yes, those are bubbles from the banner of the VREB home page here.
If you look at inventory, clearly it is blasting into the stratosphere. There has been nothing remotely like this situation in the three years I have been keeping stats on the local market. Anyway.....
I made some predictions for how the June VREB numbers would turn out:
SFH - Median of $530,000, Average of $570,000. Sales of 380-400.
Condos - Median of $280,000. Sales of around 180.
Townhouses - Median of $380,000. Sales of around 60.
Turns out I was not far off, actual numbers for June 2008 are as follows:
SFH - 395 sales. Median of $538,000. Average of $580,104.
Condos - 180 sales. Median of $295,000. Average of $319,943.
Townhouses - 81 sales. Median of $399,500. Average of $431,992.
My guesses for the condo and single family home market were pretty close, for townhouses, well, maybe that's where all the people who couldn't find a cheap house went looking, who knows?
What's next, will expired listings and a release of pent up demand turn this around in a hurry, or is this a pivot point, before the downward spiral to where income generation rather than expectations of asset appreciation rule the market? Is their a certain sense of uneasiness about the housing market among the disinterested masses?
Stay tuned, it is getting interesting!
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Greg,
It is interesting to note that in 2005 and 2006 inventory kept rising until September. In 2007 inventory peaked in June but that was a good year for sales. In the last three years you will also note that sales kept going in a downward trend until December. CLICK HERE for the data. That means MOI should continue to increase every month until the autumn.
Roger, about the inventory, I agree with you 100%, that's what I saw in the last few years - inventory increasing until early fall, and not falling dramatically until listings start to expire at the end of the year.
I expect the same pattern to repeat itself this year, with less sales, that sets up next spring with a flood of inventory relative to buyers, at current prices.
Very funny pick up!
But there's so much more to the VREB banner. The five rotating pictures tell a story and it's almost a haiku:
for sale
four-leaf clover for luck (you're going to need it)
sold
no one's home
it's a bubble
Chico -
I like your pick-up on the whole banner rotation, I wasn't observant enough to put together the sequence like that.
I did think the choice of the four leaf clover is a bit odd. I mean, how rare are four leaf clovers? Are good listings just as rare? That seems like a strange message for realtors to be sending, even if it is only subliminally.
Thanks for the poem, feel free to add more haiku like observations anytime.
oooh Greg, why don't you have a whole bubble poetry thread.
Ha ha - I love that you put Tony Joe on there. He is annoying!
Wow! Talk about a loaded image! I can't believe the subtext was lost on them and they put not one, but two gigantic bubbles ready to burst in front of a '70's bungalow. Maybe the pent up guilt of weasling their way through the last six years is coming out in unusual ways. Freud would be proud. But maybe sometimes a bubble is just a bubble :)...
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